Weekly Market Analysis (November 22 – November 26)

Indices Commodity shares led US stocks lower on Friday in a shortened post holiday session as investors’ unloaded risky assets on strong worries that EURO-ZONE debt problems may spread. Consumer stocks were also in play as Black Friday, often the biggest shopping day of the year, began what is expected to be the strongest holiday shopping season in three years. While strong sales on Black Friday, when many retailers move into the black, could give a boost to stocks next week, however Europe’s shaky finances may temper any gains. The US Dollar rallied while the EURO slid to a new two-month low amid fears that Portugal and Spain could follow Ireland in needing bailouts to bolster their own economies. The S&P Materials Index (GSPM) dropped 1.2 percent as key base metals prices fell, pressured by the advancing US Dollar and after the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised margin requirements, forcing liquidation of speculative positions. Stocks, however, finished in the red on Black Friday as EUROZONE contagion fears and...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Eur/dlr set for deeper correction

Posted 9/11/10
LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market. * EURO/DOLLAR: "Spike warns of more downside. With a high of $1.4283 the market has met all but the ideal target (1.44ish) of the bull triangle. The low weekly close, back into the triangle, is a clear warning that the August rise now has run its course and that a more profound correction/longer period of congestion/turnaround is at hand. Bearish divergences are also expected to help the pair lower. Support at $1.3734." * DOLLAR INDEX: "More upside seen near term. Falling short of the triangle target, holding the 2008 support line and creating a bullish, however not yet confirmed, divergence all makes us stand ready for more profit taking/stop loss buying near term. If RSI climbs above its recent reaction peak the bull divergence will be confirmed hence more upside potential to be released". * EURO/YEN: "Sellers responded ahead of the...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

INDICATORS – Lebanon – Nov 2

Posted 2/11/10
BEIRUT, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Below is a table of the latest Lebanese economic statistics. Figures are provided by the central bank, finance ministry and ratings agencies. Newly updated information denoted by (*). -----------------------LEBANESE POUND---------------------- EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN BANKS - 1,507.5 pounds to the dollar -----------------------KEY INTEREST RATES------------------ T-bill rates * Term (Nov 4 issue) Discount (pct) Yield (pct) 12 months 4.59 4.81 24 months ---- 5.34 36 months ---- 5.94 (Oct 14 issue) Term Discount (pct) Yield (pct) 3 months 3.89 3.93 6 months 4.42 4.52 60 months ---- 6.18 Central bank CD rates (percent) 45 days....03.57 60 days....03.85 182 days...----- 364 days...----- -------------------ECONOMIC INDICATORS---------------------- *Inflation (Central Administration for Statistics--CAS year-on-year CPI) Sept Aug July June May April March Feb 4 pct 3.4 2.9 3.5 4.9 pct 4.7pct 4.5 pct 2.9pct Balance of payments (Banque Du Liban--millions of U.S. dollars) April Feb Jan, 10 Dec Nov Oct April, '09 424.4 758.5 -44.3 1610 279.9 1,167.1 839.1 (Source: Banque Du Liban) Trade (millions of U.S. dollars) April '10 April '09 Imports 1,377 1,797 Exports 328 230 (Source: Ministry of Finance, Customs Directorate) Foreign assets (Banque Du Liban--billions of U.S. dollars) June 15 June 30 May...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Dollar/Swiss tests 55-dma: Commerzbank

Posted 2/11/10
LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market. COMMERZBANK * EURO/DOLLAR: "Remains within the confines of its sideways pattern, the top of which lies at $1.4005 today. It is unclear if this is a consolidation or a top pattern, but our view will remain skewed to the downside while capped below 1.4005/80." * DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF has recovered and is probing the 55-day moving average at 0.9934 francs for the first time since June. We look for the market to remain well supported on dips to the 0.9749 short term support line and 0.9710, the 20-day ma. Technical indicators are positive and we look for gains to 1.00 then Fibonacci retracement at 1.0118 and 1.0330." * STERLING/DOLLAR: "We look for the rally higher to falter at $1.6108/34 (recent high and 3-month resistance line). This should hold the initial test and provoke some profit taking. Interim support lies at 1.5879 (20-day...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Shares inch lower and dollar steady before Fed

Posted 2/11/10
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares fell but the dollar kept a tenuous grip on overnight gains in Asia on Tuesday ahead of U.S. elections and a Federal Reserve meeting that is expected to ease monetary policy. * The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> dropped 0.4 percent by 9:41 p.m. ET as material and financial stocks weakened. * Japan's Nikkei share average <.N225> fell to a seven-week low and the broader-based Topix index <.TOPX> hit a 19-month low, under pressure from the yen's strength as it hovers close to a record high against the dollar. * The Nikkei was off 0.1 percent and the Topix was down 0.2 percent. They are down 13 percent and 12 percent so far this year, respectively. * The dollar was last at 80.63 yen and within sight of a record low of 79.75 yen set in 1995. Markets were keeping a wary eye on the currency pair, with the risk of Japanese intervention seen...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

The RBA’s decision to raise interest rate increased demand on higher-yielding...

Posted 2/11/10
The Japanese currency declined against the greenback and its major counterparts during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly rose the interest rate, increasing the demand for higher-yielding currencies.  The euro inclined against the dollar during the Asian session trading over the level 1.3900, recording a high of 1.3936 and a low of 1.3880, and now it faces a resistance at 1.4000 which might weaken the upside movement of the pair. The daily momentum indicators show a possible rise yet the four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area.  The British pound rose in a narrow range against the dollar during the Asian session, recording a high of 1.6065 and a low of 1.6032, and now it trades around 1.6056 where the pair faces a resistance at 1.6100. The daily and four hours momentum indicators show the pair in an overbought area which may favor a downside movement.  The yen fell against the dollar, recording a high...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Mixed sentiment in the market over prospects for QE by the feds

Posted 27/10/10
Once again, the volatility returned to the market and the mixed sentiment is evident, yet in a blunt reasoning, the dollar’s freefall which was extensive and overrated is gradually coming to terms to the economic reality. The dollar is surely dominating the scene today and gains for greenback are the most across the board. The dollar index which gauges the performance for the federal currency against its six major rivals was trading higher into the European session ahead of data queued for release form the United States. Currently, the index is hovering around 77.80 areas after recording the low of 77.55 and the high of 78.13. The index is aiming to extend the upside recovery which started last week, where over weekly basis we can see the recovery signals and reversal on momentum indicators from oversold areas. The index is now hovering around the 76.4% correction for the last upside rally from the trough at 74.26 to the high at 88.70 around 77.60...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Asia’s stock markets widened their losses

Posted 27/10/10
Cautious remains a present feature in the stock markets around Asia as the dollar gained value, pushing commodities down. Markets seam to undertake a correctional movement on the short term especially since data supports the decline. South Korea’s economy grew less than expected in Q3 while inflation in Australia rose less than estimated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell today by 1.1% to 129.03 at 15:17 in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 Nikkei 225 rose today by 0.10% or 9.65 points closing at 9387.03 after the dollar rose against the yen giving support to the Japanese exporting companies. From 225 shares, 84 advanced, 122 declined and 19 unchanged. Sectors leading the incline were consumer goods that gained 14.90 points and the industrials that gained 7.76 points, while the sector that led the decline was health care which lost 6.92 points. Among the shares that advanced TDK Corp topped the list by rising 3.16% closing at 4740 yen, followed by Softbank Corp which rose by 1.44%...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

Asia’s stock markets widened their losses

Posted 27/10/10
Cautious remains a present feature in the stock markets around Asia as the dollar gained value, pushing commodities down. Markets seam to undertake a correctional movement on the short term especially since data supports the decline. South Korea’s economy grew less than expected in Q3 while inflation in Australia rose less than estimated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell today by 1.1% to 129.03 at 15:17 in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 Nikkei 225 rose today by 0.10% or 9.65 points closing at 9387.03 after the dollar rose against the yen giving support to the Japanese exporting companies. From 225 shares, 84 advanced, 122 declined and 19 unchanged. Sectors leading the incline were consumer goods that gained 14.90 points and the industrials that gained 7.76 points, while the sector that led the decline was health care which lost 6.92 points. Among the shares that advanced TDK Corp topped the list by rising 3.16% closing at 4740 yen, followed by Softbank Corp which rose by 1.44%...
  Full Coverage         Comments      

FOREX-Dollar gains vs yen after Japan reminders

Posted 26/10/10
By Jessica Mortimer LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the yen, holding above its 1995 record low on Tuesday following reminders from Japanese officials about the possibility of more steps to curb yen strength. The U.S. currency steadied against other currencies, with the euro stuck below $1.40 as market participants pondered how much monetary easing the Federal Reserve would opt for and how much may be priced in to an already weak U.S. currency. Helping steady the dollar were comments by New York Fed President William Dudley overnight, who said the economic context would determine whether an incremental or big bang approach to asset purchases was better. The market was also wary about pushing the dollar lower versus the yen due to worries about possible intervention after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan would take decisive steps on forex when needed.  At 0746 GMT, the dollar was up 0.5 percent at 81.15 yen JPY= , with traders citing talk of Japanese investors...
  Full Coverage         Comments